CoD: Putin speaks in Munich

President Putin spoke at the 43d International Conference on Security in Munich, lashing out at the US foreign policies. In his opinion, 'almost all the legal system of one state, first of all certainly that of the United States of America, has stepped over its national borders to be imposed on other states in all the spheres - in economics and in politics and in the humanitarian area.' He urged Western politicians 'not to pose as Lord God'.

Putin's talk was provocative, but it has come in the specific context. First, it occurred before his visit to the Middle East, with expectations to restore Russian positions in this territory and to build new alliances - to which a sparkle of anti-Americanism could greatly assist. Second, the US itself has been making steps that could be seen at least as 'unfriendly' (if not hostile) by Russian community, recently naming Russia among the potential enemies of the US - before this statement, the possibility was kept in mind, with NATO expansion to Eastern Europe and FSU countries, but it was never admitted openly. Third, and probably most important, the self-repositioning of Russia as an 'energy superpower', and proper steps such as renegotiating terms of supplying Europe and renationalizing oil&gas companies, brought the country under the severe fire of critique. Putin administration may have decided that 'attack is the best defence', and so attacked the US for its world policies.

I will not argue whether or not Russian repositioning is appropriate - although it probably is, for the country that lost its political, economic, cultural and military weight, can use the main lever that remains, the terms of supplying its highly-demanded energy resources. Using this lever, Russia now tries to climb back to where it were, maybe not as a world superpower, but at least as a regionally significant power - that cannot be but annoyed by attempts to deprive it of what still its in its domains, e.g. its influence on its close neighbours such as Ukraine. In fact, the US pushed too far - it either had to destabilize Russia to the extent where it ceased to exist when it could in early 1990s (but then the US would have to deal with the zone of tremendous instability in a quarter of Eurasia) or it has to admit that Russia has its right to influence the region (simply because of its size and resource endowment). Now Russia regains its lost legacy, and this will not come without pains, though not another Cold War of course. Putin's speech calls to accept this process.

But there is another dimension to the Munich demarche. I think it is very important what Putin did last Saturday. In fact, he broke tacit rules of diplomatic talks, when things are never called what they are. By passing away the ritual of diplomacy, Putin created a new situation, when political statements can be made frankly (bluntly, as Gates said), at least for a while. He created a situation of institutional disequlibrium so to say, when old communicative formats and templates are no longer acceptable, and new ones have not been formed yet.

This disequilibrium is of course a threat, calling for a stereotype response in the Cold War manner, which many old school politicians still will be able to revoke. It is, however, also a tremendous opportunity to reformat relationships. The US and Europe have to agree that Russia these days is no longer a weak and disoriented state as it were after the collapse of the Soviet Union. They have to accept new role of Russia - its growing wealth, its increasing political power. They also have to accept that the present President, and the policies that he implements, is a consensus of elites. There is a new situation in Russia, and it calls for the new attitude towards Russia, and new communicative formats with Russia. I expect that the US and Europe will be sufficiently sophisticated to get the message, and that it will spin some new common formats.